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Sunday 18 March 2018, 17:15 Camp Nou Full time
79% 15% 6%
Home win
78.8%
Draw
14.9%
Away win
6.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 78.8% 1.27
Draw 14.9% 6.71
Athletic Club 6.3% 15.89

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.1% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.9% 20.37
Over 1.5 81.9% 1.22
Under 1.5 18.1% 5.53
Over 2.5 59.9% 1.67
Under 2.5 40.1% 2.49
Over 3.5 37.5% 2.67
Under 3.5 62.5% 1.60
Over 4.5 20.2% 4.96
Under 4.5 79.8% 1.25

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.4% 2.42
No 58.6% 1.71

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 93.7% 1.07
Barcelona / Athletic Club 85.1% 1.18
Draw / Athletic Club 21.2% 4.72

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.9
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
10.9
7.1
2.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
2
14.2
8.4
2.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
11.9
7.0
2.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
7.4
4.4
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
5
3.7
2.2
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.