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Saturday 19 May 2018, 21:45 Estadio de la Cerámica Full time
30% 24% 46%
Home win
30.3%
Draw
23.8%
Away win
45.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Villarreal 30.3% 3.30
Draw 23.8% 4.21
Real Madrid 45.9% 2.18

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.7% 1.04
Under 0.5 4.3% 23.51
Over 1.5 84.8% 1.18
Under 1.5 15.2% 6.59
Over 2.5 64.2% 1.56
Under 2.5 35.8% 2.79
Over 3.5 42.1% 2.37
Under 3.5 57.9% 1.73
Over 4.5 23.9% 4.19
Under 4.5 76.1% 1.31

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 65.3% 1.53
No 34.7% 2.88

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Villarreal / Draw 54.1% 1.85
Villarreal / Real Madrid 76.2% 1.31
Draw / Real Madrid 69.7% 1.43

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.3
6.1
6.2
3.8
1.8
0.6
1
4.8
10.5
9.1
5.6
2.6
0.9
2
3.9
7.2
6.7
4.1
1.9
0.7
3
1.9
3.5
3.3
2.0
0.9
0.3
4
0.7
1.3
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.1
5
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.