Wednesday 9 May 2018, 21:00
Camp Nou
Full time
73%
17%
10%
Home win
73.2%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
9.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Draw | 17.1% | 5.84 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 9.6% | 10.38 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.5% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.5% | 22.16 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 16.6% | 6.03 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 22.0% | 4.54 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
| No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona / Draw | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Barcelona / Villarreal | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 26.8% | 3.74 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.5
|
2.7
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.4
|
8.1
|
3.0
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.9
|
9.3
|
3.6
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.6
|
7.5
|
2.9
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
5.8
|
4.6
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.8
|
2.2
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Barcelona
4-1
Villarreal
Dec 2025
Villarreal
0-2
Barcelona
May 2025
Barcelona
2-3
Villarreal
Sep 2024
Villarreal
1-5
Barcelona
Jan 2024
Barcelona
3-5
Villarreal
Aug 2023
Villarreal
3-4
Barcelona
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.