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Saturday 14 April 2018, 17:15 Camp Nou Full time
2–1
HT 1–0
79% 13% 7%
Home win
79.2%
Draw
13.4%
Away win
7.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 79.2% 1.26
Draw 13.4% 7.47
Valencia 7.4% 13.52

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.3% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.7% 36.55
Over 1.5 89.0% 1.12
Under 1.5 11.0% 9.12
Over 2.5 72.0% 1.39
Under 2.5 28.0% 3.57
Over 3.5 51.3% 1.95
Under 3.5 48.7% 2.05
Over 4.5 31.9% 3.13
Under 4.5 68.1% 1.47

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.6% 1.87
No 46.4% 2.15

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 92.6% 1.08
Barcelona / Valencia 86.6% 1.15
Draw / Valencia 20.8% 4.81

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.7
1.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
6.6
6.1
2.4
0.7
0.1
0.0
2
10.1
8.4
3.5
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
9.8
8.1
3.4
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
7.1
5.9
2.4
0.7
0.1
0.0
5
4.1
3.4
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.