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Saturday 17 March 2018, 17:15 Mestalla Full time
3–1
HT 2–0
59% 24% 17%
Home win
59.1%
Draw
24.2%
Away win
16.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia 59.1% 1.69
Draw 24.2% 4.13
Alaves 16.7% 5.97

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.2% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.8% 12.78
Over 1.5 74.6% 1.34
Under 1.5 25.4% 3.93
Over 2.5 49.0% 2.04
Under 2.5 51.0% 1.96
Over 3.5 27.2% 3.68
Under 3.5 72.8% 1.37
Over 4.5 12.8% 7.84
Under 4.5 87.2% 1.15

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.2% 2.08
No 51.8% 1.93

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia / Draw 83.3% 1.20
Valencia / Alaves 75.8% 1.32
Draw / Alaves 40.9% 2.44

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.8
5.4
2.6
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
12.2
11.5
4.6
1.3
0.3
0.0
2
11.5
9.7
4.1
1.2
0.2
0.0
3
6.8
5.8
2.4
0.7
0.1
0.0
4
3.1
2.6
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.