Saturday 24 February 2018, 17:15
Santiago Bernabéu
Full time
74%
17%
9%
Home win
74.2%
Draw
16.7%
Away win
9.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Draw | 16.7% | 5.98 | — | — |
| Alaves | 9.1% | 10.96 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.5% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.5% | 22.42 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 83.5% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 16.5% | 6.08 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | 2.66 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 22.2% | 4.50 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
| No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid / Draw | 90.9% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Real Madrid / Alaves | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Draw / Alaves | 25.8% | 3.87 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.5
|
2.6
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.4
|
7.9
|
2.9
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.1
|
9.2
|
3.5
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.9
|
7.5
|
2.9
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
6.1
|
4.6
|
1.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.0
|
2.3
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Real Madrid
2-1
Alaves
Dec 2025
Alaves
1-2
Real Madrid
Apr 2025
Alaves
0-1
Real Madrid
Sep 2024
Real Madrid
3-2
Alaves
May 2024
Real Madrid
5-0
Alaves
Dec 2023
Alaves
0-1
Real Madrid
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.