Skip to content
Saturday 10 February 2018, 21:45 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
75% 14% 11%
Home win
75.0%
Draw
14.3%
Away win
10.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 75.0% 1.33
Draw 14.3% 6.99
Real Sociedad 10.7% 9.35

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.1% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.9% 53.79
Over 1.5 92.4% 1.08
Under 1.5 7.6% 13.08
Over 2.5 78.6% 1.27
Under 2.5 21.4% 4.68
Over 3.5 60.0% 1.67
Under 3.5 40.0% 2.50
Over 4.5 40.5% 2.47
Under 4.5 59.5% 1.68

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 65.0% 1.54
No 35.0% 2.86

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 89.3% 1.12
Real Madrid / Real Sociedad 85.7% 1.17
Draw / Real Sociedad 25.0% 4.00

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.9
1.4
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
4.4
5.6
3.0
1.2
0.3
0.1
2
7.1
8.1
4.6
1.7
0.5
0.1
3
7.2
8.2
4.7
1.8
0.5
0.1
4
5.4
6.2
3.5
1.3
0.4
0.1
5
3.3
3.8
2.1
0.8
0.2
0.1
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.