Saturday 13 January 2018, 17:15
Santiago Bernabéu
Full time
59%
23%
18%
Home win
59.1%
Draw
23.0%
Away win
17.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Draw | 23.0% | 4.34 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 17.9% | 5.59 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.8% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.2% | 16.24 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 20.9% | 4.77 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 44.7% | 2.23 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 16.7% | 5.98 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| No | 46.4% | 2.16 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid / Draw | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Real Madrid / Villarreal | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 40.9% | 2.44 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.2
|
4.7
|
2.6
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
10.0
|
10.9
|
5.0
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.3
|
9.9
|
4.8
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
6.6
|
6.4
|
3.1
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
3.2
|
3.1
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.2
|
1.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Villarreal
0-2
Real Madrid
Oct 2025
Real Madrid
3-1
Villarreal
Mar 2025
Villarreal
1-2
Real Madrid
Oct 2024
Real Madrid
2-0
Villarreal
May 2024
Villarreal
4-4
Real Madrid
Dec 2023
Real Madrid
4-1
Villarreal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.