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Saturday 25 August 2018, 21:15 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano Full time
Atletico Madrid
1–0
HT 0–0
Rayo Vallecano
82% 13% 5%
Home win
81.7%
Draw
13.2%
Away win
5.0%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 81.7% 1.22 — —
Draw 13.2% 7.55 — —
Rayo Vallecano 5.0% 19.85 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.5% 1.05 — —
Under 0.5 4.5% 22.26 — —
Over 1.5 83.0% 1.20 — —
Under 1.5 17.0% 5.90 — —
Over 2.5 61.7% 1.62 — —
Under 2.5 38.3% 2.61 — —
Over 3.5 39.4% 2.54 — —
Under 3.5 60.6% 1.65 — —
Over 4.5 21.7% 4.62 — —
Under 4.5 78.3% 1.28 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 39.2% 2.55 — —
No 60.8% 1.64 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 95.0% 1.05 — —
Atletico Madrid / Rayo Vallecano 86.8% 1.15 — —
Draw / Rayo Vallecano 18.3% 5.47 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.5
1.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
10.6
6.3
1.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
2
14.5
7.8
2.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
12.8
6.9
1.9
0.3
0.0
0.0
4
8.4
4.6
1.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
4.5
2.4
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Rayo Vallecano goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Atletico Madrid
W L W D D
Rayo Vallecano
L

Head to head

Feb 2026 Rayo Vallecano 3-0 Atletico Madrid Sep 2025 Atletico Madrid 3-2 Rayo Vallecano Apr 2025 Atletico Madrid 3-0 Rayo Vallecano Sep 2024 Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Atletico Madrid Jan 2024 Atletico Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano Aug 2023 Rayo Vallecano 0-7 Atletico Madrid

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.