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Monday 20 August 2018, 21:00 Mestalla Full time
26% 31% 43%
Home win
26.3%
Draw
30.8%
Away win
42.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia 26.3% 3.80
Draw 30.8% 3.24
Atletico Madrid 42.9% 2.33

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 87.2% 1.15
Under 0.5 12.8% 7.82
Over 1.5 63.4% 1.58
Under 1.5 36.6% 2.73
Over 2.5 35.6% 2.81
Under 2.5 64.4% 1.55
Over 3.5 16.5% 6.05
Under 3.5 83.5% 1.20
Over 4.5 6.4% 15.58
Under 4.5 93.6% 1.07

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 42.6% 2.35
No 57.4% 1.74

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia / Draw 57.1% 1.75
Valencia / Atletico Madrid 69.2% 1.45
Draw / Atletico Madrid 73.7% 1.36

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.8
13.9
9.0
3.7
1.1
0.3
1
10.0
14.0
8.1
3.3
1.0
0.2
2
4.8
5.9
3.6
1.5
0.5
0.1
3
1.4
1.8
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.