Monday 20 August 2018, 21:00
Mestalla
Full time
26%
31%
43%
Home win
26.3%
Draw
30.8%
Away win
42.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 26.3% | 3.80 | — | — |
| Draw | 30.8% | 3.24 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 12.8% | 7.82 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 35.6% | 2.81 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 16.5% | 6.05 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 83.5% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.4% | 15.58 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 93.6% | 1.07 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
| No | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia / Draw | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Valencia / Atletico Madrid | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Draw / Atletico Madrid | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
12.8
|
13.9
|
9.0
|
3.7
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
10.0
|
14.0
|
8.1
|
3.3
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
4.8
|
5.9
|
3.6
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
1.4
|
1.8
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Valencia
0-2
Atletico Madrid
Dec 2025
Atletico Madrid
2-1
Valencia
Feb 2025
Valencia
0-3
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2024
Atletico Madrid
3-0
Valencia
Jan 2024
Atletico Madrid
2-0
Valencia
Sep 2023
Valencia
3-0
Atletico Madrid
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.