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Sunday 29 April 2018, 17:15 Estadio de Mendizorroza Full time
17% 31% 52%
Home win
16.9%
Draw
31.3%
Away win
51.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Alaves 16.9% 5.91
Draw 31.3% 3.19
Atletico Madrid 51.8% 1.93

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 83.5% 1.20
Under 0.5 16.5% 6.06
Over 1.5 55.7% 1.79
Under 1.5 44.3% 2.26
Over 2.5 28.1% 3.55
Under 2.5 71.9% 1.39
Over 3.5 11.6% 8.62
Under 3.5 88.4% 1.13
Over 4.5 4.0% 25.18
Under 4.5 96.0% 1.04

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 32.7% 3.06
No 67.3% 1.48

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Alaves / Draw 48.2% 2.07
Alaves / Atletico Madrid 68.7% 1.46
Draw / Atletico Madrid 83.1% 1.20

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
16.5
19.1
12.4
5.2
1.6
0.4
1
8.7
12.4
7.3
3.1
1.0
0.2
2
2.8
3.5
2.2
0.9
0.3
0.1
3
0.5
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.