Sunday 29 April 2018, 17:15
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Full time
17%
31%
52%
Home win
16.9%
Draw
31.3%
Away win
51.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 16.9% | 5.91 | — | — |
| Draw | 31.3% | 3.19 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 83.5% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 16.5% | 6.06 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 28.1% | 3.55 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 11.6% | 8.62 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.0% | 25.18 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 96.0% | 1.04 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32.7% | 3.06 | — | — |
| No | 67.3% | 1.48 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves / Draw | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
| Alaves / Atletico Madrid | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Draw / Atletico Madrid | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
16.5
|
19.1
|
12.4
|
5.2
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
| 1 |
8.7
|
12.4
|
7.3
|
3.1
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
2.8
|
3.5
|
2.2
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
0.5
|
0.7
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Atletico Madrid
1-0
Alaves
Aug 2025
Alaves
1-1
Atletico Madrid
May 2025
Alaves
0-0
Atletico Madrid
Nov 2024
Atletico Madrid
2-1
Alaves
Apr 2024
Alaves
2-0
Atletico Madrid
Oct 2023
Atletico Madrid
2-1
Alaves
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.