Skip to content
Sunday 6 May 2018, 17:15 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano Full time
67% 25% 9%
Home win
66.8%
Draw
24.7%
Away win
8.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 66.8% 1.50
Draw 24.7% 4.05
Espanyol 8.5% 11.72

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.2% 1.16
Under 0.5 13.8% 7.23
Over 1.5 60.4% 1.66
Under 1.5 39.6% 2.53
Over 2.5 32.8% 3.05
Under 2.5 67.2% 1.49
Over 3.5 14.6% 6.85
Under 3.5 85.4% 1.17
Over 4.5 5.4% 18.43
Under 4.5 94.6% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 27.4% 3.64
No 72.6% 1.38

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 91.5% 1.09
Atletico Madrid / Espanyol 75.3% 1.33
Draw / Espanyol 33.2% 3.01

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.8
4.9
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
20.8
9.3
1.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
17.2
7.0
1.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
9.2
3.8
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
3.7
1.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
1.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.