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Wednesday 26 September 2018, 23:00 Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán Full time
23% 21% 56%
Home win
23.3%
Draw
20.7%
Away win
56.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sevilla 23.3% 4.29
Draw 20.7% 4.84
Real Madrid 56.0% 1.79

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.2% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.8% 35.78
Over 1.5 89.4% 1.12
Under 1.5 10.6% 9.43
Over 2.5 72.5% 1.38
Under 2.5 27.5% 3.63
Over 3.5 51.8% 1.93
Under 3.5 48.2% 2.08
Over 4.5 32.5% 3.08
Under 4.5 67.5% 1.48

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 69.5% 1.44
No 30.5% 3.28

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sevilla / Draw 44.0% 2.27
Sevilla / Real Madrid 79.3% 1.26
Draw / Real Madrid 76.7% 1.30

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.8
4.9
6.2
4.7
2.7
1.3
1
2.9
8.3
9.0
6.9
4.0
1.8
2
2.5
5.7
6.6
5.0
2.9
1.3
3
1.2
2.8
3.2
2.4
1.4
0.6
4
0.4
1.0
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.2
5
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
Rows: Sevilla goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.