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Wednesday 26 September 2018, 21:00 San Mamés Full time
36% 30% 34%
Home win
35.7%
Draw
30.4%
Away win
33.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club 35.7% 2.80
Draw 30.4% 3.29
Villarreal 33.8% 2.95

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.6% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.4% 8.74
Over 1.5 66.3% 1.51
Under 1.5 33.7% 2.97
Over 2.5 38.8% 2.58
Under 2.5 61.2% 1.63
Over 3.5 18.9% 5.30
Under 3.5 81.1% 1.23
Over 4.5 7.7% 12.99
Under 4.5 92.3% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 46.2% 2.16
No 53.8% 1.86

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club / Draw 66.2% 1.51
Athletic Club / Villarreal 69.6% 1.44
Draw / Villarreal 64.3% 1.56

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.4
10.9
6.5
2.4
0.7
0.1
1
11.3
14.1
7.4
2.7
0.7
0.2
2
6.9
7.6
4.2
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
2.6
2.9
1.6
0.6
0.2
0.0
4
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.