Wednesday 26 September 2018, 21:00
San Mamés
Full time
36%
30%
34%
Home win
35.7%
Draw
30.4%
Away win
33.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 35.7% | 2.80 | — | — |
| Draw | 30.4% | 3.29 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 33.8% | 2.95 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88.6% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.4% | 8.74 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 33.7% | 2.97 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 38.8% | 2.58 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 18.9% | 5.30 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.7% | 12.99 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 92.3% | 1.08 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
| No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club / Draw | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Athletic Club / Villarreal | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
11.4
|
10.9
|
6.5
|
2.4
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
11.3
|
14.1
|
7.4
|
2.7
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
6.9
|
7.6
|
4.2
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
2.6
|
2.9
|
1.6
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.7
|
0.8
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Athletic Club
1-2
Villarreal
Sep 2025
Villarreal
1-0
Athletic Club
Apr 2025
Villarreal
0-0
Athletic Club
Dec 2024
Athletic Club
2-0
Villarreal
Apr 2024
Athletic Club
1-1
Villarreal
Nov 2023
Villarreal
2-3
Athletic Club
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.