Sunday 27 November 2016, 13:00
Estadio de la Cerámica
Full time
60%
27%
13%
Home win
59.9%
Draw
27.4%
Away win
12.7%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Draw | 27.4% | 3.65 | — | — |
| Alaves | 12.7% | 7.86 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86.1% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 13.9% | 7.20 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 14.7% | 6.82 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.5% | 18.34 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 94.5% | 1.06 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32.8% | 3.05 | — | — |
| No | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal / Draw | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Villarreal / Alaves | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Draw / Alaves | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
13.9
|
6.5
|
1.9
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
19.0
|
11.2
|
2.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
14.6
|
7.8
|
2.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
7.2
|
3.9
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.7
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Alaves
1-1
Villarreal
Jan 2026
Villarreal
3-1
Alaves
Mar 2025
Alaves
1-0
Villarreal
Nov 2024
Villarreal
3-0
Alaves
Feb 2024
Alaves
1-1
Villarreal
Oct 2023
Villarreal
1-1
Alaves
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.