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Sunday 20 November 2016, 21:45 San Mamés Full time
24% 31% 44%
Home win
24.5%
Draw
31.4%
Away win
44.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club 24.5% 4.09
Draw 31.4% 3.19
Villarreal 44.2% 2.26

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.1% 1.16
Under 0.5 13.9% 7.18
Over 1.5 61.0% 1.64
Under 1.5 39.0% 2.56
Over 2.5 33.1% 3.02
Under 2.5 66.9% 1.50
Over 3.5 14.8% 6.74
Under 3.5 85.2% 1.17
Over 4.5 5.5% 18.06
Under 4.5 94.5% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 40.1% 2.49
No 59.9% 1.67

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club / Draw 55.8% 1.79
Athletic Club / Villarreal 68.6% 1.46
Draw / Villarreal 75.5% 1.32

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.9
15.1
9.5
3.8
1.2
0.3
1
10.0
13.8
7.9
3.2
1.0
0.2
2
4.5
5.4
3.2
1.3
0.4
0.1
3
1.2
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.