Sunday 20 November 2016, 21:45
San Mamés
Full time
24%
31%
44%
Home win
24.5%
Draw
31.4%
Away win
44.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 24.5% | 4.09 | — | — |
| Draw | 31.4% | 3.19 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86.1% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 13.9% | 7.18 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 39.0% | 2.56 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 33.1% | 3.02 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 66.9% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 14.8% | 6.74 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 85.2% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.5% | 18.06 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 94.5% | 1.06 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
| No | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club / Draw | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Athletic Club / Villarreal | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
13.9
|
15.1
|
9.5
|
3.8
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
10.0
|
13.8
|
7.9
|
3.2
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
4.5
|
5.4
|
3.2
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
1.2
|
1.5
|
0.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Athletic Club
1-2
Villarreal
Sep 2025
Villarreal
1-0
Athletic Club
Apr 2025
Villarreal
0-0
Athletic Club
Dec 2024
Athletic Club
2-0
Villarreal
Apr 2024
Athletic Club
1-1
Villarreal
Nov 2023
Villarreal
2-3
Athletic Club
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.