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Friday 23 September 2016, 21:45 Stadium Municipal Full time
Toulouse
2–0
HT 0–0
Paris Saint Germain
36% 28% 35%
Home win
36.4%
Draw
28.4%
Away win
35.2%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Toulouse 36.4% 2.74 — —
Draw 28.4% 3.52 — —
Paris Saint Germain 35.2% 2.84 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.2% 1.10 — —
Under 0.5 8.8% 11.39 — —
Over 1.5 72.5% 1.38 — —
Under 1.5 27.5% 3.64 — —
Over 2.5 46.2% 2.16 — —
Under 2.5 53.8% 1.86 — —
Over 3.5 24.8% 4.04 — —
Under 3.5 75.2% 1.33 — —
Over 4.5 11.2% 8.92 — —
Under 4.5 88.8% 1.13 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.2% 1.92 — —
No 47.8% 2.09 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Toulouse / Draw 64.8% 1.54 — —
Toulouse / Paris Saint Germain 71.6% 1.40 — —
Draw / Paris Saint Germain 63.6% 1.57 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.8
9.2
6.2
2.6
0.8
0.2
1
9.5
13.5
8.0
3.3
1.0
0.3
2
6.5
8.1
5.1
2.1
0.7
0.2
3
2.8
3.5
2.2
0.9
0.3
0.1
4
0.9
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Toulouse goals. Columns: Paris Saint Germain goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Toulouse
W D L W W
Paris Saint Germain
W L D W W

Head to head

Apr 2026 Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse Aug 2025 Toulouse 3-6 Paris Saint Germain Feb 2025 Toulouse 0-1 Paris Saint Germain Nov 2024 Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Toulouse May 2024 Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Toulouse Aug 2023 Toulouse 1-1 Paris Saint Germain

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.