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Tuesday 20 September 2016, 20:00 Stade Pierre-Mauroy Full time
1–2
HT 1–1
28% 30% 42%
Home win
27.9%
Draw
30.0%
Away win
42.1%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lille 27.9% 3.58
Draw 30.0% 3.33
Toulouse 42.1% 2.38

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.6% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.4% 8.78
Over 1.5 66.4% 1.51
Under 1.5 33.6% 2.97
Over 2.5 38.9% 2.57
Under 2.5 61.1% 1.64
Over 3.5 18.9% 5.28
Under 3.5 81.1% 1.23
Over 4.5 7.7% 12.93
Under 4.5 92.3% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.6% 2.19
No 54.4% 1.84

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lille / Draw 57.9% 1.73
Lille / Toulouse 70.0% 1.43
Draw / Toulouse 72.1% 1.39

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.4
12.6
8.5
3.6
1.1
0.3
1
9.6
13.9
8.3
3.5
1.1
0.3
2
5.1
6.4
4.1
1.7
0.5
0.1
3
1.7
2.1
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.0
4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Toulouse goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.