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Wednesday 5 April 2017, 21:30 El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini Full time
40% 27% 33%
Home win
40.4%
Draw
26.7%
Away win
32.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sporting Gijon 40.4% 2.47
Draw 26.7% 3.75
Malaga 32.9% 3.04

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.1% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.9% 14.56
Over 1.5 77.4% 1.29
Under 1.5 22.6% 4.43
Over 2.5 52.8% 1.89
Under 2.5 47.2% 2.12
Over 3.5 30.5% 3.27
Under 3.5 69.5% 1.44
Over 4.5 15.0% 6.64
Under 4.5 85.0% 1.18

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 57.1% 1.75
No 42.9% 2.33

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sporting Gijon / Draw 67.1% 1.49
Sporting Gijon / Malaga 73.3% 1.36
Draw / Malaga 59.6% 1.68

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.9
7.4
5.3
2.3
0.8
0.2
1
8.4
12.6
7.8
3.4
1.1
0.3
2
6.7
8.8
5.8
2.5
0.8
0.2
3
3.3
4.3
2.8
1.2
0.4
0.1
4
1.2
1.6
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
5
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Sporting Gijon goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.