Sunday 21 January 2018, 16:00
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
39%
25%
36%
Home win
38.8%
Draw
25.3%
Away win
35.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | 38.8% | 2.58 | — | — |
| Draw | 25.3% | 3.94 | — | — |
| Fiorentina | 35.8% | 2.79 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.6% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.4% | 18.63 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 81.6% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 18.4% | 5.42 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 36.5% | 2.74 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 19.4% | 5.15 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61.9% | 1.61 | — | — |
| No | 38.1% | 2.63 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria / Draw | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Sampdoria / Fiorentina | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Draw / Fiorentina | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.4
|
6.4
|
5.3
|
2.6
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
6.7
|
11.6
|
8.2
|
4.1
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
5.7
|
8.6
|
6.4
|
3.2
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
| 3 |
3.0
|
4.5
|
3.3
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 4 |
1.2
|
1.7
|
1.3
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2023
Fiorentina
5-0
Sampdoria
Nov 2022
Sampdoria
0-2
Fiorentina
May 2022
Sampdoria
4-1
Fiorentina
Nov 2021
Fiorentina
3-1
Sampdoria
Feb 2021
Sampdoria
2-1
Fiorentina
Oct 2020
Fiorentina
1-2
Sampdoria
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.