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Sunday 23 April 2017, 16:00 Luigi Ferraris Full time
1–2
HT 1–0
57% 27% 16%
Home win
57.0%
Draw
27.1%
Away win
15.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria 57.0% 1.76
Draw 27.1% 3.69
Crotone 15.9% 6.29

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.3% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.7% 8.58
Over 1.5 65.5% 1.53
Under 1.5 34.5% 2.90
Over 2.5 38.0% 2.63
Under 2.5 62.0% 1.61
Over 3.5 18.3% 5.47
Under 3.5 81.7% 1.22
Over 4.5 7.4% 13.59
Under 4.5 92.6% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 39.4% 2.54
No 60.6% 1.65

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria / Draw 84.1% 1.19
Sampdoria / Crotone 72.9% 1.37
Draw / Crotone 43.0% 2.32

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.7
6.8
2.6
0.6
0.1
0.0
1
16.1
12.1
3.9
0.9
0.2
0.0
2
12.8
8.7
3.0
0.7
0.1
0.0
3
6.5
4.4
1.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
2.5
1.7
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Sampdoria goals. Columns: Crotone goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.