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Sunday 9 April 2017, 13:30 Luigi Ferraris Full time
38% 29% 33%
Home win
37.7%
Draw
29.0%
Away win
33.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria 37.7% 2.65
Draw 29.0% 3.45
Fiorentina 33.3% 3.00

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.4% 1.11
Under 0.5 9.6% 10.38
Over 1.5 70.5% 1.42
Under 1.5 29.5% 3.39
Over 2.5 43.7% 2.29
Under 2.5 56.3% 1.78
Over 3.5 22.6% 4.42
Under 3.5 77.4% 1.29
Over 4.5 9.9% 10.10
Under 4.5 90.1% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 50.1% 2.00
No 49.9% 2.00

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria / Draw 66.7% 1.50
Sampdoria / Fiorentina 71.0% 1.41
Draw / Fiorentina 62.3% 1.60

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.6
9.6
6.0
2.3
0.7
0.2
1
10.4
13.8
7.6
2.9
0.9
0.2
2
7.0
8.2
4.8
1.9
0.5
0.1
3
2.9
3.4
2.0
0.8
0.2
0.1
4
0.9
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Sampdoria goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.