Sunday 5 March 2017, 13:30
Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia
Full time
53%
25%
23%
Home win
52.5%
Draw
24.6%
Away win
22.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Draw | 24.6% | 4.06 | — | — |
| Fiorentina | 22.9% | 4.37 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.8% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.2% | 16.08 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 21.0% | 4.77 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 32.8% | 3.05 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 16.7% | 6.00 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| No | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta / Draw | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Atalanta / Fiorentina | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Draw / Fiorentina | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.2
|
5.5
|
3.4
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
9.2
|
11.6
|
6.1
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
8.8
|
9.8
|
5.4
|
2.0
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
5.2
|
5.8
|
3.2
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
2.3
|
2.6
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.8
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Fiorentina
1-1
Atalanta
Nov 2025
Atalanta
2-0
Fiorentina
Mar 2025
Fiorentina
1-0
Atalanta
Sep 2024
Atalanta
3-2
Fiorentina
Jun 2024
Atalanta
2-3
Fiorentina
Sep 2023
Fiorentina
3-2
Atalanta
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.