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Saturday 11 March 2017, 21:45 Luigi Ferraris Full time
0–1
HT 0–0
32% 29% 38%
Home win
32.4%
Draw
29.4%
Away win
38.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa 32.4% 3.09
Draw 29.4% 3.40
Sampdoria 38.2% 2.62

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 89.8% 1.11
Under 0.5 10.2% 9.82
Over 1.5 69.2% 1.45
Under 1.5 30.8% 3.24
Over 2.5 42.1% 2.37
Under 2.5 57.9% 1.73
Over 3.5 21.4% 4.67
Under 3.5 78.6% 1.27
Over 4.5 9.2% 10.93
Under 4.5 90.8% 1.10

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.8% 2.05
No 51.2% 1.95

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa / Draw 61.8% 1.62
Genoa / Sampdoria 70.6% 1.42
Draw / Sampdoria 67.6% 1.48

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.2
10.9
7.2
3.0
0.9
0.2
1
9.8
13.9
8.1
3.4
1.0
0.3
2
5.9
7.4
4.6
1.9
0.6
0.1
3
2.2
2.8
1.7
0.7
0.2
0.1
4
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.