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Sunday 19 March 2017, 22:00 Parc des Princes Full time
64% 21% 15%
Home win
63.7%
Draw
20.8%
Away win
15.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Paris Saint Germain 63.7% 1.57
Draw 20.8% 4.80
Lyon 15.5% 6.47

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.0% 1.05
Under 0.5 5.0% 20.13
Over 1.5 82.4% 1.21
Under 1.5 17.6% 5.67
Over 2.5 60.3% 1.66
Under 2.5 39.7% 2.52
Over 3.5 38.0% 2.63
Under 3.5 62.0% 1.61
Over 4.5 20.5% 4.87
Under 4.5 79.5% 1.26

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 55.5% 1.80
No 44.5% 2.25

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Paris Saint Germain / Draw 84.6% 1.18
Paris Saint Germain / Lyon 79.2% 1.26
Draw / Lyon 36.3% 2.76

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.0
3.7
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
8.9
9.8
4.5
1.5
0.4
0.1
2
10.2
9.9
4.8
1.6
0.4
0.1
3
7.3
7.1
3.4
1.1
0.3
0.1
4
3.9
3.8
1.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
5
1.7
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Paris Saint Germain goals. Columns: Lyon goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.