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Sunday 26 February 2017, 22:00 Orange Vélodrome Full time
Marseille
1–5
HT 0–2
Paris Saint Germain
27% 30% 43%
Home win
27.1%
Draw
29.5%
Away win
43.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Marseille 27.1% 3.69 — —
Draw 29.5% 3.39 — —
Paris Saint Germain 43.3% 2.31 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 89.1% 1.12 — —
Under 0.5 10.9% 9.13 — —
Over 1.5 67.4% 1.48 — —
Under 1.5 32.6% 3.06 — —
Over 2.5 40.0% 2.50 — —
Under 2.5 60.0% 1.67 — —
Over 3.5 19.8% 5.06 — —
Under 3.5 80.2% 1.25 — —
Over 4.5 8.2% 12.18 — —
Under 4.5 91.8% 1.09 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 46.3% 2.16 — —
No 53.7% 1.86 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Marseille / Draw 56.7% 1.77 — —
Marseille / Paris Saint Germain 70.5% 1.42 — —
Draw / Paris Saint Germain 72.9% 1.37 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.9
12.5
8.7
3.8
1.2
0.3
1
9.2
13.8
8.5
3.7
1.2
0.3
2
4.9
6.4
4.2
1.8
0.6
0.2
3
1.6
2.1
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Paris Saint Germain goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Marseille
W L W L W
Paris Saint Germain
D W W W D

Head to head

Feb 2026 Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Marseille Sep 2025 Marseille 1-0 Paris Saint Germain Mar 2025 Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Marseille Oct 2024 Marseille 0-3 Paris Saint Germain Mar 2024 Marseille 0-2 Paris Saint Germain Sep 2023 Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Marseille

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.