Skip to content
Sunday 2 October 2016, 18:00 Allianz Riviera Full time
2–1
HT 1–0
78% 17% 5%
Home win
77.8%
Draw
16.8%
Away win
5.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Nice 77.8% 1.29
Draw 16.8% 5.95
Lorient 5.4% 18.49

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.1% 1.09
Under 0.5 7.9% 12.73
Over 1.5 73.6% 1.36
Under 1.5 26.4% 3.79
Over 2.5 48.1% 2.08
Under 2.5 51.9% 1.93
Over 3.5 26.3% 3.80
Under 3.5 73.7% 1.36
Over 4.5 12.2% 8.18
Under 4.5 87.8% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 30.9% 3.24
No 69.1% 1.45

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Nice / Draw 94.6% 1.06
Nice / Lorient 83.2% 1.20
Draw / Lorient 22.2% 4.50

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.9
2.7
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
15.8
7.2
1.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
17.6
7.4
1.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
12.8
5.4
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
7.0
2.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
3.0
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Nice goals. Columns: Lorient goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.