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Sunday 28 October 2018, 21:30 Stadio San Paolo Full time
1–1
HT 0–1
50% 26% 24%
Home win
49.9%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
24.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli 49.9% 2.00
Draw 25.7% 3.88
AS Roma 24.3% 4.11

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.9% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.1% 14.17
Over 1.5 76.8% 1.30
Under 1.5 23.2% 4.31
Over 2.5 52.0% 1.92
Under 2.5 48.0% 2.08
Over 3.5 29.8% 3.36
Under 3.5 70.2% 1.42
Over 4.5 14.5% 6.88
Under 4.5 85.5% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.6% 1.83
No 45.4% 2.20

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli / Draw 75.7% 1.32
Napoli / AS Roma 74.3% 1.35
Draw / AS Roma 50.1% 2.00

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.1
6.3
3.8
1.4
0.4
0.1
1
9.9
12.3
6.3
2.3
0.6
0.1
2
8.8
9.6
5.3
1.9
0.5
0.1
3
4.9
5.3
2.9
1.1
0.3
0.1
4
2.0
2.2
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: AS Roma goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.