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Sunday 7 October 2018, 19:00 Stadio San Paolo Full time
2–0
HT 1–0
77% 15% 8%
Home win
77.0%
Draw
14.9%
Away win
8.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli 77.0% 1.30
Draw 14.9% 6.70
Sassuolo 8.1% 12.33

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.5% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.5% 28.28
Over 1.5 86.4% 1.16
Under 1.5 13.6% 7.35
Over 2.5 67.2% 1.49
Under 2.5 32.8% 3.05
Over 3.5 45.5% 2.20
Under 3.5 54.5% 1.83
Over 4.5 26.7% 3.74
Under 4.5 73.3% 1.36

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.1% 1.96
No 48.9% 2.04

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli / Draw 91.9% 1.09
Napoli / Sassuolo 85.1% 1.18
Draw / Sassuolo 23.0% 4.34

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.5
2.1
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
8.0
7.0
2.6
0.7
0.1
0.0
2
11.2
8.8
3.5
0.9
0.2
0.0
3
10.0
7.9
3.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
6.7
5.3
2.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
3.6
2.8
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.