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Sunday 30 September 2018, 21:30 Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore Full time
1–4
HT 0–1
30% 27% 43%
Home win
30.3%
Draw
27.1%
Away win
42.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sassuolo 30.3% 3.30
Draw 27.1% 3.69
AC Milan 42.6% 2.35

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.4% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.6% 13.20
Over 1.5 75.5% 1.32
Under 1.5 24.5% 4.09
Over 2.5 50.2% 1.99
Under 2.5 49.8% 2.01
Over 3.5 28.2% 3.55
Under 3.5 71.8% 1.39
Over 4.5 13.4% 7.44
Under 4.5 86.6% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.8% 1.83
No 45.2% 2.21

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sassuolo / Draw 57.4% 1.74
Sassuolo / AC Milan 72.9% 1.37
Draw / AC Milan 69.7% 1.43

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.6
9.4
7.4
3.7
1.3
0.4
1
7.5
12.9
9.0
4.4
1.6
0.5
2
5.0
7.4
5.4
2.7
1.0
0.3
3
2.0
3.0
2.2
1.1
0.4
0.1
4
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Sassuolo goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.