Thursday 27 September 2018, 22:00
Carlo Castellani
Full time
20%
28%
52%
Home win
20.4%
Draw
28.1%
Away win
51.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | 20.4% | 4.91 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.1% | 3.56 | — | — |
| AC Milan | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89.1% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.9% | 9.18 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 32.7% | 3.06 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 19.8% | 5.05 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.2% | 12.17 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 91.8% | 1.09 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
| No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli / Draw | 48.4% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Empoli / AC Milan | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Draw / AC Milan | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.9
|
14.1
|
10.9
|
5.3
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
| 1 |
7.6
|
13.0
|
9.0
|
4.4
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
3.4
|
5.0
|
3.7
|
1.8
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
0.9
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2025
Empoli
0-2
AC Milan
Nov 2024
AC Milan
3-0
Empoli
Mar 2024
AC Milan
1-0
Empoli
Jan 2024
Empoli
0-3
AC Milan
Apr 2023
AC Milan
0-0
Empoli
Oct 2022
Empoli
1-3
AC Milan
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.