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Sunday 15 January 2017, 22:00 Orange Vélodrome Full time
1–4
HT 1–3
29% 25% 45%
Home win
29.2%
Draw
25.4%
Away win
45.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Marseille 29.2% 3.42
Draw 25.4% 3.94
Monaco 45.4% 2.20

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.1% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.9% 17.00
Over 1.5 80.1% 1.25
Under 1.5 19.9% 5.02
Over 2.5 56.6% 1.77
Under 2.5 43.4% 2.31
Over 3.5 34.3% 2.92
Under 3.5 65.7% 1.52
Over 4.5 17.7% 5.65
Under 4.5 82.3% 1.22

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 59.5% 1.68
No 40.5% 2.47

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Marseille / Draw 54.6% 1.83
Marseille / Monaco 74.6% 1.34
Draw / Monaco 70.8% 1.41

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.9
8.0
7.2
4.0
1.7
0.5
1
6.1
11.9
9.3
5.1
2.1
0.7
2
4.4
7.2
6.0
3.3
1.4
0.5
3
1.9
3.1
2.6
1.4
0.6
0.2
4
0.6
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Monaco goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.