Sunday 18 December 2016, 18:00
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
51%
31%
18%
Home win
51.4%
Draw
30.6%
Away win
18.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Draw | 30.6% | 3.27 | — | — |
| Lille | 18.1% | 5.54 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 15.0% | 6.66 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 30.9% | 3.24 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 13.3% | 7.51 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.8% | 20.89 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 95.2% | 1.05 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35.5% | 2.82 | — | — |
| No | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Marseille / Lille | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Draw / Lille | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
15.0
|
8.6
|
3.0
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
17.8
|
12.8
|
3.9
|
0.9
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.0
|
7.8
|
2.5
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
5.2
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.7
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Marseille
1-2
Lille
Dec 2025
Lille
1-0
Marseille
May 2025
Lille
1-1
Marseille
Dec 2024
Marseille
1-1
Lille
Apr 2024
Lille
3-1
Marseille
Nov 2023
Marseille
0-0
Lille
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.