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Sunday 2 October 2016, 21:45 Parc Olympique Lyonnais Full time
2–0
HT 1–0
35% 27% 38%
Home win
34.8%
Draw
27.5%
Away win
37.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lyon 34.8% 2.87
Draw 27.5% 3.64
Saint Etienne 37.7% 2.65

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.3% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.7% 13.01
Over 1.5 75.3% 1.33
Under 1.5 24.7% 4.04
Over 2.5 49.8% 2.01
Under 2.5 50.2% 1.99
Over 3.5 27.9% 3.59
Under 3.5 72.1% 1.39
Over 4.5 13.2% 7.56
Under 4.5 86.8% 1.15

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 55.0% 1.82
No 45.0% 2.22

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lyon / Draw 62.3% 1.61
Lyon / Saint Etienne 72.5% 1.38
Draw / Saint Etienne 65.2% 1.53

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.7
8.7
6.5
2.9
1.0
0.3
1
8.3
13.1
8.4
3.8
1.3
0.4
2
5.9
8.0
5.5
2.5
0.9
0.2
3
2.6
3.5
2.4
1.1
0.4
0.1
4
0.8
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Saint Etienne goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.