Skip to content
Saturday 22 October 2016, 21:00 Stade Pierre-Mauroy Full time
2–1
HT 0–0
38% 32% 30%
Home win
37.7%
Draw
31.9%
Away win
30.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lille 37.7% 2.65
Draw 31.9% 3.14
Bastia 30.4% 3.29

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.3% 1.16
Under 0.5 13.7% 7.32
Over 1.5 61.6% 1.62
Under 1.5 38.4% 2.60
Over 2.5 33.7% 2.96
Under 2.5 66.3% 1.51
Over 3.5 15.2% 6.57
Under 3.5 84.8% 1.18
Over 4.5 5.7% 17.41
Under 4.5 94.3% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.8% 2.39
No 58.2% 1.72

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lille / Draw 69.6% 1.44
Lille / Bastia 68.1% 1.47
Draw / Bastia 62.3% 1.61

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.7
11.5
5.9
1.9
0.4
0.1
1
13.3
14.3
6.4
2.0
0.5
0.1
2
7.7
7.4
3.5
1.1
0.3
0.1
3
2.8
2.7
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Bastia goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.