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Wednesday 25 October 2017, 21:45 Luigi Ferraris Full time
2–3
HT 1–2
10% 18% 72%
Home win
10.3%
Draw
18.2%
Away win
71.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa 10.3% 9.73
Draw 18.2% 5.49
Napoli 71.5% 1.40

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.9% 1.05
Under 0.5 5.1% 19.54
Over 1.5 81.6% 1.22
Under 1.5 18.4% 5.45
Over 2.5 59.3% 1.69
Under 2.5 40.7% 2.46
Over 3.5 36.9% 2.71
Under 3.5 63.1% 1.59
Over 4.5 19.7% 5.07
Under 4.5 80.3% 1.25

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.7% 2.05
No 51.3% 1.95

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa / Draw 28.5% 3.51
Genoa / Napoli 81.8% 1.22
Draw / Napoli 89.7% 1.11

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.1
10.2
12.3
9.5
5.5
2.5
1
3.1
8.7
9.4
7.3
4.2
1.9
2
1.4
3.1
3.6
2.8
1.6
0.7
3
0.3
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.2
4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.