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Wednesday 20 September 2017, 21:45 Stadio Olimpico Full time
1–4
HT 1–0
29% 22% 48%
Home win
29.5%
Draw
22.2%
Away win
48.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio 29.5% 3.39
Draw 22.2% 4.51
Napoli 48.4% 2.07

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.9% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.1% 32.70
Over 1.5 88.6% 1.13
Under 1.5 11.4% 8.77
Over 2.5 70.9% 1.41
Under 2.5 29.1% 3.44
Over 3.5 49.9% 2.00
Under 3.5 50.1% 2.00
Over 4.5 30.7% 3.26
Under 4.5 69.3% 1.44

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 70.2% 1.42
No 29.8% 3.36

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio / Draw 51.6% 1.94
Lazio / Napoli 77.8% 1.28
Draw / Napoli 70.5% 1.42

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.1
4.8
5.5
3.8
2.0
0.8
1
3.6
8.9
8.7
6.0
3.1
1.3
2
3.3
6.7
7.0
4.8
2.5
1.0
3
1.7
3.6
3.7
2.6
1.3
0.6
4
0.7
1.4
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.2
5
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.