Skip to content
Sunday 27 August 2017, 21:45 Stadio San Paolo Full time
3–1
HT 0–1
59% 23% 18%
Home win
58.6%
Draw
22.9%
Away win
18.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli 58.6% 1.71
Draw 22.9% 4.36
Atalanta 18.4% 5.42

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.2% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.8% 17.13
Over 1.5 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 20.0% 4.99
Over 2.5 56.6% 1.77
Under 2.5 43.4% 2.30
Over 3.5 34.2% 2.92
Under 3.5 65.8% 1.52
Over 4.5 17.7% 5.66
Under 4.5 82.3% 1.21

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 55.0% 1.82
No 45.0% 2.22

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli / Draw 81.6% 1.23
Napoli / Atalanta 77.1% 1.30
Draw / Atalanta 41.4% 2.42

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.8
4.6
2.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
1
9.6
10.8
5.1
1.7
0.4
0.1
2
9.9
10.0
5.0
1.7
0.4
0.1
3
6.4
6.5
3.2
1.1
0.3
0.1
4
3.1
3.1
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.