Saturday 20 May 2017, 21:45
Stadio San Paolo
Full time
69%
17%
13%
Home win
69.1%
Draw
17.5%
Away win
13.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Draw | 17.5% | 5.71 | — | — |
| Fiorentina | 13.4% | 7.46 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97.0% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.0% | 33.18 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 11.6% | 8.63 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 29.3% | 3.41 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| No | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli / Draw | 86.6% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Napoli / Fiorentina | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Draw / Fiorentina | 30.9% | 3.24 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.0
|
2.4
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
6.2
|
7.6
|
3.9
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
8.6
|
9.3
|
5.0
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
7.3
|
7.9
|
4.3
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
4.7
|
5.1
|
2.8
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
2.4
|
2.6
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Napoli
2-1
Fiorentina
Sep 2025
Fiorentina
1-3
Napoli
Mar 2025
Napoli
2-1
Fiorentina
Jan 2025
Fiorentina
0-3
Napoli
May 2024
Fiorentina
2-2
Napoli
Oct 2023
Napoli
1-3
Fiorentina
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.