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Saturday 13 May 2017, 19:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi Full time
3–2
HT 0–0
35% 24% 41%
Home win
34.6%
Draw
24.0%
Away win
41.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina 34.6% 2.89
Draw 24.0% 4.17
Lazio 41.4% 2.41

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.9% 1.04
Under 0.5 4.1% 24.28
Over 1.5 85.3% 1.17
Under 1.5 14.7% 6.79
Over 2.5 64.9% 1.54
Under 2.5 35.1% 2.85
Over 3.5 42.9% 2.33
Under 3.5 57.1% 1.75
Over 4.5 24.6% 4.07
Under 4.5 75.4% 1.33

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 66.4% 1.51
No 33.6% 2.98

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina / Draw 58.6% 1.71
Fiorentina / Lazio 76.0% 1.32
Draw / Lazio 65.4% 1.53

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.1
5.6
5.4
3.2
1.4
0.5
1
5.0
10.4
8.6
5.0
2.2
0.8
2
4.5
7.8
6.9
4.0
1.8
0.6
3
2.4
4.2
3.6
2.1
0.9
0.3
4
0.9
1.7
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.1
5
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.