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Saturday 15 April 2017, 16:00 Luigi Ferraris Full time
2–2
HT 1–1
19% 25% 55%
Home win
19.3%
Draw
25.3%
Away win
55.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa 19.3% 5.18
Draw 25.3% 3.95
Lazio 55.3% 1.81

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.0% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.1% 12.42
Over 1.5 74.1% 1.35
Under 1.5 25.9% 3.86
Over 2.5 48.4% 2.07
Under 2.5 51.6% 1.94
Over 3.5 26.6% 3.76
Under 3.5 73.4% 1.36
Over 4.5 12.4% 8.08
Under 4.5 87.6% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.5% 2.02
No 50.5% 1.98

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa / Draw 44.7% 2.24
Genoa / Lazio 74.7% 1.34
Draw / Lazio 80.7% 1.24

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.1
11.8
10.6
6.0
2.6
0.9
1
6.0
12.1
9.7
5.5
2.3
0.8
2
3.0
5.2
4.4
2.5
1.1
0.4
3
0.9
1.6
1.3
0.8
0.3
0.1
4
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.