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Sunday 2 April 2017, 16:00 Luigi Ferraris Full time
0–5
HT 0–2
25% 28% 47%
Home win
24.9%
Draw
28.2%
Away win
46.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa 24.9% 4.02
Draw 28.2% 3.55
Atalanta 46.9% 2.13

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.3% 1.11
Under 0.5 9.7% 10.31
Over 1.5 70.2% 1.42
Under 1.5 29.8% 3.36
Over 2.5 43.4% 2.30
Under 2.5 56.6% 1.77
Over 3.5 22.4% 4.46
Under 3.5 77.6% 1.29
Over 4.5 9.8% 10.24
Under 4.5 90.2% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.3% 2.07
No 51.7% 1.93

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa / Draw 53.1% 1.88
Genoa / Atalanta 71.8% 1.39
Draw / Atalanta 75.1% 1.33

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.7
12.1
9.2
4.4
1.6
0.5
1
8.0
13.3
9.0
4.3
1.6
0.4
2
4.3
6.1
4.4
2.1
0.8
0.2
3
1.4
2.0
1.4
0.7
0.2
0.1
4
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.