Sunday 2 April 2017, 16:00
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
25%
28%
47%
Home win
24.9%
Draw
28.2%
Away win
46.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 24.9% | 4.02 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.55 | — | — |
| Atalanta | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.7% | 10.31 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 29.8% | 3.36 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 22.4% | 4.46 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.8% | 10.24 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 90.2% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
| No | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa / Draw | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Genoa / Atalanta | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Draw / Atalanta | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.7
|
12.1
|
9.2
|
4.4
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
| 1 |
8.0
|
13.3
|
9.0
|
4.3
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
| 2 |
4.3
|
6.1
|
4.4
|
2.1
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
1.4
|
2.0
|
1.4
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.3
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Atalanta
0-0
Genoa
Dec 2025
Genoa
0-1
Atalanta
May 2025
Genoa
2-3
Atalanta
Oct 2024
Atalanta
5-1
Genoa
Feb 2024
Genoa
1-4
Atalanta
Oct 2023
Atalanta
2-0
Genoa
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.