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Saturday 18 March 2017, 21:45 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
1–0
HT 1–0
62% 24% 15%
Home win
61.9%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
14.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 61.9% 1.62
Draw 23.5% 4.25
Genoa 14.6% 6.85

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.9% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.1% 12.37
Over 1.5 73.8% 1.35
Under 1.5 26.2% 3.82
Over 2.5 48.1% 2.08
Under 2.5 51.9% 1.93
Over 3.5 26.3% 3.80
Under 3.5 73.7% 1.36
Over 4.5 12.2% 8.20
Under 4.5 87.8% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.7% 2.19
No 54.3% 1.84

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 85.4% 1.17
AC Milan / Genoa 76.5% 1.31
Draw / Genoa 38.1% 2.62

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.1
5.1
2.2
0.6
0.1
0.0
1
13.0
11.1
4.0
1.0
0.2
0.0
2
12.4
9.6
3.7
0.9
0.2
0.0
3
7.6
5.8
2.2
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
3.5
2.7
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
1.3
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.