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Sunday 30 April 2017, 13:30 Stadio Olimpico Full time
1–3
HT 1–1
60% 23% 18%
Home win
59.6%
Draw
22.6%
Away win
17.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AS Roma 59.6% 1.68
Draw 22.6% 4.43
Lazio 17.8% 5.62

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.3% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.7% 17.50
Over 1.5 80.3% 1.25
Under 1.5 19.7% 5.08
Over 2.5 57.1% 1.75
Under 2.5 42.9% 2.33
Over 3.5 34.7% 2.88
Under 3.5 65.3% 1.53
Over 4.5 18.0% 5.54
Under 4.5 82.0% 1.22

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.9% 1.82
No 45.1% 2.22

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AS Roma / Draw 82.2% 1.22
AS Roma / Lazio 77.4% 1.29
Draw / Lazio 40.4% 2.48

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.7
4.5
2.5
0.8
0.2
0.0
1
9.5
10.7
5.0
1.7
0.4
0.1
2
10.0
10.0
5.0
1.6
0.4
0.1
3
6.6
6.6
3.3
1.1
0.3
0.1
4
3.3
3.2
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
1.3
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: AS Roma goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.