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Saturday 23 September 2017, 19:00 Stadio Paolo Mazza Full time
2–3
HT 1–1
11% 19% 70%
Home win
10.9%
Draw
19.3%
Away win
69.7%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal 10.9% 9.13
Draw 19.3% 5.17
Napoli 69.7% 1.43

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.2% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.8% 17.28
Over 1.5 79.8% 1.25
Under 1.5 20.2% 4.94
Over 2.5 56.4% 1.77
Under 2.5 43.6% 2.29
Over 3.5 34.0% 2.94
Under 3.5 66.0% 1.52
Over 4.5 17.5% 5.70
Under 4.5 82.5% 1.21

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 47.6% 2.10
No 52.4% 1.91

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal / Draw 30.3% 3.30
Spal / Napoli 80.7% 1.24
Draw / Napoli 89.1% 1.12

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.8
11.0
12.6
9.2
5.0
2.2
1
3.4
9.2
9.5
7.0
3.8
1.7
2
1.5
3.3
3.6
2.6
1.4
0.6
3
0.4
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.2
4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Spal goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.