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Sunday 19 March 2017, 13:30 Carlo Castellani Full time
2–3
HT 0–3
10% 20% 70%
Home win
10.0%
Draw
20.2%
Away win
69.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli 10.0% 10.05
Draw 20.2% 4.95
Napoli 69.8% 1.43

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.6% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.4% 13.56
Over 1.5 75.4% 1.33
Under 1.5 24.6% 4.06
Over 2.5 50.2% 1.99
Under 2.5 49.8% 2.01
Over 3.5 28.2% 3.54
Under 3.5 71.8% 1.39
Over 4.5 13.5% 7.43
Under 4.5 86.5% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.6% 2.40
No 58.4% 1.71

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli / Draw 30.2% 3.32
Empoli / Napoli 79.8% 1.25
Draw / Napoli 90.0% 1.11

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.4
13.4
14.3
9.7
5.0
2.0
1
3.8
9.5
9.1
6.2
3.2
1.3
2
1.4
2.8
2.9
2.0
1.0
0.4
3
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Empoli goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.