Monday 15 May 2017, 22:00
Stamford Bridge
Full time
83%
12%
5%
Home win
82.8%
Draw
12.4%
Away win
4.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Draw | 12.4% | 8.07 | — | — |
| Watford | 4.8% | 21.02 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.0% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.0% | 25.25 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 15.3% | 6.53 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 35.6% | 2.81 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 24.0% | 4.16 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
| No | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea / Draw | 95.2% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Chelsea / Watford | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Draw / Watford | 17.2% | 5.83 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.0
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.7
|
5.9
|
1.5
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
13.8
|
7.7
|
2.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
12.7
|
7.1
|
2.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
8.8
|
4.9
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
4.9
|
2.7
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2022
Chelsea
2-1
Watford
Dec 2021
Watford
1-2
Chelsea
Jul 2020
Chelsea
3-0
Watford
Nov 2019
Watford
1-2
Chelsea
May 2019
Chelsea
3-0
Watford
Dec 2018
Watford
1-2
Chelsea
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.