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Monday 8 May 2017, 22:00 Stamford Bridge Full time
79% 16% 5%
Home win
78.7%
Draw
16.0%
Away win
5.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 78.7% 1.27
Draw 16.0% 6.27
Middlesbrough 5.3% 18.72

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.0% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.0% 14.32
Over 1.5 75.9% 1.32
Under 1.5 24.1% 4.15
Over 2.5 51.1% 1.96
Under 2.5 48.9% 2.05
Over 3.5 29.0% 3.44
Under 3.5 71.0% 1.41
Over 4.5 14.0% 7.13
Under 4.5 86.0% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 32.7% 3.06
No 67.3% 1.49

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 94.7% 1.06
Chelsea / Middlesbrough 84.0% 1.19
Draw / Middlesbrough 21.3% 4.69

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.0
2.5
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
14.6
7.1
1.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
17.0
7.6
1.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
3
12.9
5.8
1.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
7.3
3.3
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
3.3
1.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Middlesbrough goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.