Saturday 12 August 2017, 17:00
Stamford Bridge
Full time
77%
16%
7%
Home win
76.9%
Draw
15.8%
Away win
7.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Draw | 15.8% | 6.34 | — | — |
| Burnley | 7.4% | 13.60 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.2% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.8% | 20.65 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 17.8% | 5.63 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 38.0% | 2.63 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 20.5% | 4.87 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea / Draw | 92.6% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Chelsea / Burnley | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Draw / Burnley | 23.1% | 4.32 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.8
|
2.4
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
10.5
|
7.5
|
2.3
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
13.5
|
8.8
|
2.8
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
11.1
|
7.2
|
2.3
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
6.8
|
4.5
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.4
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Chelsea
1-1
Burnley
Nov 2025
Burnley
0-2
Chelsea
Mar 2024
Chelsea
2-2
Burnley
Oct 2023
Burnley
1-4
Chelsea
Mar 2022
Burnley
0-4
Chelsea
Nov 2021
Chelsea
1-1
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.