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Saturday 5 May 2018, 16:30 Signal Iduna Park Full time
69% 18% 12%
Home win
69.4%
Draw
18.2%
Away win
12.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund 69.4% 1.44
Draw 18.2% 5.50
FSV Mainz 05 12.4% 8.07

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.0% 1.04
Under 0.5 4.0% 25.24
Over 1.5 85.3% 1.17
Under 1.5 14.7% 6.80
Over 2.5 65.2% 1.53
Under 2.5 34.8% 2.87
Over 3.5 43.2% 2.31
Under 3.5 56.8% 1.76
Over 4.5 24.8% 4.04
Under 4.5 75.2% 1.33

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 56.0% 1.79
No 44.0% 2.27

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund / Draw 87.6% 1.14
Borussia Dortmund / FSV Mainz 05 81.8% 1.22
Draw / FSV Mainz 05 30.6% 3.27

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.0
2.8
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
7.9
8.4
3.7
1.2
0.3
0.1
2
10.2
9.6
4.5
1.4
0.3
0.1
3
8.2
7.7
3.6
1.1
0.3
0.1
4
4.9
4.7
2.2
0.7
0.2
0.0
5
2.4
2.2
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: FSV Mainz 05 goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.