Saturday 5 May 2018, 16:30
Signal Iduna Park
Full time
69%
18%
12%
Home win
69.4%
Draw
18.2%
Away win
12.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Draw | 18.2% | 5.50 | — | — |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 12.4% | 8.07 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.0% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.0% | 25.24 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 14.7% | 6.80 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | 2.87 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 24.8% | 4.04 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| No | 44.0% | 2.27 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund / Draw | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Borussia Dortmund / FSV Mainz 05 | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Draw / FSV Mainz 05 | 30.6% | 3.27 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.0
|
2.8
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
7.9
|
8.4
|
3.7
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.2
|
9.6
|
4.5
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
8.2
|
7.7
|
3.6
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
4.9
|
4.7
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.4
|
2.2
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Borussia Dortmund
4-0
FSV Mainz 05
Sep 2025
FSV Mainz 05
0-2
Borussia Dortmund
Mar 2025
Borussia Dortmund
3-1
FSV Mainz 05
Nov 2024
FSV Mainz 05
3-1
Borussia Dortmund
May 2024
FSV Mainz 05
3-0
Borussia Dortmund
Dec 2023
Borussia Dortmund
1-1
FSV Mainz 05
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.